Exploring the natural history of intrinsic capacity impairments: longitudinal patterns in the 10/66 study

BACKGROUND: intrinsic capacity (IC) is a construct encompassing people’s physical and mental abilities. There is an implicit link amongst IC domains: cognition, locomotion, nutrition, sensory and psychological. However, little is known about the integration of the domains. OBJECTIVES: to investigate patterns in the presentation and evolution of IC domain impairments in low-and-middle-income countries and if such patterns were associated with adverse outcomes. METHODS: secondary analyses of the first two waves of the 10/66 study (population-based surveys conducted in eight urban and four rural catchment areas in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico and China). We applied latent transition analysis on IC to find latent statuses (latent clusters) of IC domain impairments. We evaluated the longitudinal association of the latent statuses with the risk of frailty, disability and mortality, and tested concurrent and predictive validity. RESULTS: amongst 14,923 participants included, the four latent statuses were: high IC (43%), low deterioration with impaired locomotion (17%), high deterioration without cognitive impairment (22%), and high deterioration with cognitive impairment (18%). A total of 61% of the participants worsened over time, 35% were stable, and 3% improved to a healthier status. Participants with deteriorated IC had a significantly higher risk of frailty, disability and dementia than people with high IC. There was strong concurrent and predictive validity. (Mortality Hazard Ratio = 4.60, 95%CI 4.16; 5.09; Harrel’s C = 0.73 (95%CI 0.72;0.74)). CONCLUSIONS: half of the study population had high IC at baseline, and most participants followed a worsening trend. Four qualitatively different IC statuses or statuses were characterised by low and high levels of deterioration associated with their risk of disability and frailty. Locomotion and cognition impairments showed other trends than psychological and nutrition domains across the latent statuses.