Analysis of Baseline Serum Lipid Profile for Predicting Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

PURPOSE: Serum lipids were reported to be the prognostic factors of various cancers, but their prognostic value in small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients remains unclear. This study investigated the relationship between lipid profiles and clinical outcomes in extensive-stage (ES) SCLC by establishing a predictive risk classification model. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the prognostic values of pretreatment serum lipids and their derivatives in patients with a confirmed diagnosis ES-SCLC. Independent factors of progression-free survival (PFS) were determined by univariate and multivariate cox analysis. Then, prognostic nomograms were established, of which predictive performance was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 158 patients was included in this study. Four optimal PFS-related factors, total cholesterol (TC) ≥ 5.30, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) > 1.30, triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C > 2.18, and ki67 expression > 70%, were included to construct the predictive nomogram. The C-indexes in training and validation sets were 0.758 and 0.792, respectively. ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA all suggested favorable discrimination and predictive ability. Besides, the nomogram also performed better predictive ability than ki67 expression. Nomogram-related risk score divided the patients into two groups with significant progression disparities. CONCLUSION: The promising prognostic nomogram based on lipid parameters could help clinicians to conveniently and accurately evaluate the prognosis of ES-SCLC patients and identify high-risk groups, so as to formulate individualized therapeutic regimens and follow-up strategies in time.