Artificial intelligence–based stratification of demographic, ocular surface high-risk factors in progression of keratoconus

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to identify and analyze the clinical and ocular surface risk factors influencing the progression of keratoconus (KC) using an artificial intelligence (AI) model. METHODS: This was a prospective analysis in which 450 KC patients were included. We used the random forest (RF) classifier model from our previous study (which evaluated longitudinal changes in tomographic parameters to predict “progression” and “no progression”) to classify these patients. Clinical and ocular surface risk factors were determined through a questionnaire, which included presence of eye rubbing, duration of indoor activity, usage of lubricants and immunomodulator topical medications, duration of computer use, hormonal disturbances, use of hand sanitizers, immunoglobulin E (IgE), and vitamins D and B12 from blood investigations. An AI model was then built to assess whether these risk factors were linked to the future progression versus no progression of KC. The area under the curve (AUC) and other metrics were evaluated. RESULTS: The tomographic AI model classified 322 eyes as progression and 128 eyes as no progression. Also, 76% of the cases that were classified as progression (from tomographic changes) were correctly predicted as progression and 67% of cases that were classified as no progression were predicted as no progression based on clinical risk factors at the first visit. IgE had the highest information gain, followed by presence of systemic allergies, vitamin D, and eye rubbing. The clinical risk factors AI model achieved an AUC of 0.812. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated the importance of using AI for risk stratification and profiling of patients based on clinical risk factors, which could impact the progression in KC eyes and help manage them better.