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Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initi...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10393287/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37533729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227 |
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author | Kollepara, Pratyush K Chisholm, Rebecca H Miller, Joel C |
author_facet | Kollepara, Pratyush K Chisholm, Rebecca H Miller, Joel C |
author_sort | Kollepara, Pratyush K |
collection | PubMed |
description | Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10393287 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-103932872023-08-02 Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases Kollepara, Pratyush K Chisholm, Rebecca H Miller, Joel C PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease. Oxford University Press 2023-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC10393287/ /pubmed/37533729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227 Text en © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Kollepara, Pratyush K Chisholm, Rebecca H Miller, Joel C Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title | Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title_full | Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title_fullStr | Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title_full_unstemmed | Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title_short | Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
title_sort | heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases |
topic | Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10393287/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37533729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227 |
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