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Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases

Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initi...

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Autores principales: Kollepara, Pratyush K, Chisholm, Rebecca H, Miller, Joel C
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10393287/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37533729
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227
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author Kollepara, Pratyush K
Chisholm, Rebecca H
Miller, Joel C
author_facet Kollepara, Pratyush K
Chisholm, Rebecca H
Miller, Joel C
author_sort Kollepara, Pratyush K
collection PubMed
description Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease.
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spelling pubmed-103932872023-08-02 Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases Kollepara, Pratyush K Chisholm, Rebecca H Miller, Joel C PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Several recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one. Our results highlight the risk of intervention designs which are informed only by the early dynamics of the disease. Oxford University Press 2023-07-11 /pmc/articles/PMC10393287/ /pubmed/37533729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227 Text en © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
Kollepara, Pratyush K
Chisholm, Rebecca H
Miller, Joel C
Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title_full Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title_fullStr Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title_full_unstemmed Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title_short Heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
title_sort heterogeneity in network structure switches the dominant transmission mode of infectious diseases
topic Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10393287/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37533729
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad227
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