Equity and trends in general practitioners’ allocation in China: based on ten years of data from 2012 to 2021

BACKGROUND: General practitioners (GP) are the gatekeepers of residents' health, 2021 is the 10th year of the establishment of the GP system in China. This study aims to assess the equity and trends of GP allocation in China from 2012 to 2021, summarize the efforts and progress of GPs in China during the decade, predict the development trend of GPs in mainland China in the next 5 years to provide a reference for regional health planning and rational allocation of GPs in China. METHODS: Data from 2012 to 2021 on GPs in 22 provinces, 5 autonomous regions, and 4 municipalities directly under the central government in mainland China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) are collected by us. Gini coefficient, Lorenz curve and health resource agglomeration degree (HRAD) were used to analyze the equity of the allocation of GPs in China from different dimensions, a Grey prediction model was used to forecast the number of GPs in 2022–2026. RESULTS: The number of GPs in mainland China increased from 109 794 to 434 868 from 2012 to 2021, with 3.08 GPs per 10 000 people in 2021. The Gini coefficient of GPs allocation by population in China decreased from 0.312 to 0.147 from 2012 to 2021, while the Gini coefficient of geographic dimension remained between 0.700 and 0.750. Compared with the degree of curvature of the Lorenz curve in the geographic dimension, the degree of curvature of the population and economic dimension were smaller. In 2021, the HRAD in the Eastern region was 4.618, the Central region was 1.493, with different degrees of imbalance among regions, the HRAD/PAD (population agglomeration degree) in the Eastern, Central and Western regions were 1.196, 0.880 and 0.821, respectively. GPs in the Eastern region is still concentrated, while the Central and Western regions were at a similar level, GPs were more scarce. The GM (1,1) model predicts that the number of GPs in mainland China will reach about 720 000 in 2026, the number of GPs per 10 000 people will reach 4.9. CONCLUSION: After a decade of development, the number of GPs in China has increased significantly. It has reached the goal of the GP system when it was first established. However, the equity of the geographical dimension, both in terms of Gini coefficient and HRAD, has great differences between different regions. The average Gini coefficient at the geographic dimension is 0.723. The average HRAD index was 4.969 in the East and 0.293 in the West. The Western region has the problem of insufficient GP allocation in both population and geographical dimension. In the future, the number of GPs in China will continue to grow rapidly with the support of policies. The “2030” goal, proposed in 2018, is expected to be achieved by 2026. Due to certain factors (such as COVID-19), the actual situation may be different from the predicted results. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12960-023-00841-5.