Assessing the usefulness of a newly proposed metabolic score for visceral fat in predicting future diabetes: results from the NAGALA cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Visceral adipose tissue assessment holds significant importance in diabetes prevention. This study aimed to explore the association between the newly proposed Metabolic Score for Visceral Fat (METS-VF) and diabetes risk and to further assess the predictive power of the baseline METS-VF for the occurrence of diabetes in different future periods. METHODS: This longitudinal cohort study included 15,464 subjects who underwent health screenings. The METS-VF, calculated using the formula developed by Bello-Chavolla et al., served as a surrogate marker for visceral fat obesity. The primary outcome of interest was the occurrence of diabetes during the follow-up period. Established multivariate Cox regression models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression models to assess the association between METS-VF and diabetes risk and its shape. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the predictive power of METS-VF with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and visceral adiposity index (VAI) for diabetes, and time-dependent ROC analysis was conducted to assess the predictive capability of METS-VF for the occurrence of diabetes in various future periods. RESULTS: During a maximum follow-up period of 13 years, with a mean of 6.13 years, we observed that the cumulative risk of developing diabetes increased with increasing METS-VF quintiles. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that each unit increase in METS-VF would increase the risk of diabetes by 68% (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.13, 2.50), and further RCS regression analysis revealed a possible non-linear association between METS-VF and diabetes risk (P for non-linearity=0.002). In addition, after comparison by ROC analysis, we found that METS-VF had significantly higher predictive power for diabetes than other general/visceral adiposity indicators, and in time-dependent ROC analysis, we further considered the time-dependence of diabetes status and METS-VF and found that METS-VF had the highest predictive value for predicting medium- and long-term (6-10 years) diabetes risk. CONCLUSION: METS-VF, a novel indicator for assessing visceral adiposity, showed a significantly positive correlation with diabetes risk. It proved to be a superior risk marker in predicting the future onset of diabetes compared to other general/visceral adiposity indicators, particularly in forecasting medium- and long-term diabetes risk.