Can frailty scores predict the incidence of cancer? Results from two large population-based studies

While chronological age is the single biggest risk factor for cancer, it is less clear whether frailty, an age-related state of physiological decline, may also predict cancer incidence. We assessed the associations of frailty index (FI) and frailty phenotype (FP) scores with the incidence of any cancer and five common cancers (breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, melanoma) in 453,144 UK Biobank (UKB) and 36,888 Screening Across the Lifespan Twin study (SALT) participants, who aged 38–73 years and had no cancer diagnosis at baseline. During a median follow-up of 10.9 and 10.7 years, 53,049 (11.7%) and 4,362 (11.8%) incident cancers were documented in UKB and SALT, respectively. Using multivariable-adjusted Cox models, we found a higher risk of any cancer in frail vs. non-frail UKB participants, when defined by both FI (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17–1.28) and FP (HR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.11–1.21). The FI in SALT similarly predicted risk of any cancer (HR = 1.31; 95% CI = 1.15–1.49). Moreover, frailty was predictive of lung cancer in UKB, although this association was not observed in SALT. Adding frailty scores to models including age, sex, and traditional cancer risk factors resulted in little improvement in C-statistics for most cancers. In a within-twin-pair analysis in SALT, the association between FI and any cancer was attenuated within monozygotic but not dizygotic twins, indicating that it may partly be explained by genetic factors. Our findings suggest that frailty scores are associated with the incidence of any cancer and lung cancer, although their clinical utility for predicting cancers may be limited. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11357-023-00783-9.