Stacked ensembles on basis of parentage information can predict hybrid performance with an accuracy comparable to marker-based GBLUP

Testcross factorials in newly established hybrid breeding programs are often highly unbalanced, incomplete, and characterized by predominance of special combining ability (SCA) over general combining ability (GCA). This results in a low efficiency of GCA-based selection. Machine learning algorithms might improve prediction of hybrid performance in such testcross factorials, as they have been successfully applied to find complex underlying patterns in sparse data. Our objective was to compare the prediction accuracy of machine learning algorithms to that of GCA-based prediction and genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) in six unbalanced incomplete factorials from hybrid breeding programs of rapeseed, wheat, and corn. We investigated a range of machine learning algorithms with three different types of predictor variables: (a) information on parentage of hybrids, (b) in addition hybrid performance of crosses of the parental lines with other crossing partners, and (c) genotypic marker data. In two highly incomplete and unbalanced factorials from rapeseed, in which the SCA variance contributed considerably to the genetic variance, stacked ensembles of gradient boosting machines based on parentage information outperformed GCA prediction. The stacked ensembles increased prediction accuracy from 0.39 to 0.45, and from 0.48 to 0.54 compared to GCA prediction. The prediction accuracy reached by stacked ensembles without marker data reached values comparable to those of GBLUP that requires marker data. We conclude that hybrid prediction with stacked ensembles of gradient boosting machines based on parentage information is a promising approach that is worth further investigations with other data sets in which SCA variance is high.