Development and validation of an online calculator to predict the pathological nature of colorectal tumors

BACKGROUND: No single endoscopic feature can reliably predict the pathological nature of colorectal tumors (CRTs). AIM: To establish and validate a simple online calculator to predict the pathological nature of CRTs based on white-light endoscopy. METHODS: This was a single-center study. During the identification stage, 530 consecutive patients with CRTs were enrolled from January 2015 to December 2021 as the derivation group. Logistic regression analysis was performed. A novel online calculator to predict the pathological nature of CRTs based on white-light images was established and verified internally. During the validation stage, two series of 110 images obtained using white-light endoscopy were distributed to 10 endoscopists [five highly experienced endoscopists and five less experienced endoscopists (LEEs)] for external validation before and after systematic training. RESULTS: A total of 750 patients were included, with an average age of 63.6 ± 10.4 years. Early colorectal cancer (ECRC) was detected in 351 (46.8%) patients. Tumor size, left semicolon site, rectal site, acanthosis, depression and an uneven surface were independent risk factors for ECRC. The C-index of the ECRC calculator prediction model was 0.906 (P = 0.225, Hosmer–Lemeshow test). For the LEEs, significant improvement was made in the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy (57.6% vs 75.5%; 72.3% vs 82.4%; 64.2% vs 80.2%; P < 0.05), respectively, after training with the ECRC online calculator prediction model. CONCLUSION: A novel online calculator including tumor size, location, acanthosis, depression, and uneven surface can accurately predict the pathological nature of ECRC.