Development of a nomogram to predict negative postoperative behavioral changes based on a prospective cohort

BACKGROUND: It is believed that negative postoperative behavioral changes (NPOBC) is associated with negative perioperative outcomes in children. The importance of development of a predictive model of NPOBC was noted. This study aims to identify potential risk factors develop a nomogram to predict NPOBC on postoperative day 3 based on a prospective cohort. METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted on children(American Society of Anesthesiologists I ~ III) aged 2 ~ 12 years who underwent selective surgery under general anesthesia between September 2022 and February 2023. The patient’s clinical data were analyzed. The method of measuring NPOBC is with the The Posthospital Behaviour Questionnaire (PHBQ), and all of children remained hospitalized at the time of assessment. The enrolled patients were categorized into the NPOBC group and the non-NPOBC group according to if children developed NPOBC on postoperative day 3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors and develop the nomogram to predict NPOBC. Internal validation was performed using the parametric bootstrapping method. RESULTS: One hundred ninety-two patients were enrolled in the study, 44.8% (86/192 patients) of children developed NPOBC on postoperative day 3. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the Pediatric Anesthesia Behavior (PAB) score (OR: 1.23, 95%CI: 1.14–1.33), cerebral desaturation (OR: 1.16, 95%CI: 1.02–1.32), and postoperative pain score (OR: 1.07, 95%CI: 1.02–1.13) were independent predictors for NPOBC on postoperative day 3 (P < 0.05). They were used to develop the prediction model. The calibration curve demonstrated satisfied discrimination and calibration of the prediction model. The model presented with good discriminative ability (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.762 [95%CI: 0.691—0.833]). The decision curve analysis also revealed the great clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: Based on our prospective observational study, pre-anesthesia patients with higher PAB scores, presence of cerebral desaturation, and higher postoperative pain score were more likely to develop NPOBC on postoperative day 3. We established and validated a nomogram for predicting NPOBC, which could help assess patients individually, identify high-risk groups of NPOBC and improve patient prognosis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR‐2,200,059,776. Registered 11 May 2022. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12871-023-02228-4.