Machine-learning for the prediction of one-year seizure recurrence based on routine electroencephalography

Predicting seizure recurrence risk is critical to the diagnosis and management of epilepsy. Routine electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of the estimation of seizure recurrence risk. However, EEG interpretation relies on the visual identification of interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) by neurologists, with limited sensitivity. Automated processing of EEG could increase its diagnostic yield and accessibility. The main objective was to develop a prediction model based on automated EEG processing to predict one-year seizure recurrence in patients undergoing routine EEG. We retrospectively selected a consecutive cohort of 517 patients undergoing routine EEG at our institution (training set) and a separate, temporally shifted cohort of 261 patients (testing set). We developed an automated processing pipeline to extract linear and non-linear features from the EEGs. We trained machine learning algorithms on multichannel EEG segments to predict one-year seizure recurrence. We evaluated the impact of IEDs and clinical confounders on performances and validated the performances on the testing set. The receiver operating characteristic area-under-the-curve for seizure recurrence after EEG in the testing set was 0.63 (95% CI 0.55–0.71). Predictions were still significantly above chance in EEGs with no IEDs. Our findings suggest that there are changes other than IEDs in the EEG signal embodying seizure propensity.