New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01(E) and BCG-revaccination

BACKGROUND: India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01(E) and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01(E) and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. METHODS: We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01(E) and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025–2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. RESULTS: M72/AS01(E) scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01(E) vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01(E) and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01(E) was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. CONCLUSIONS: M72/AS01(E) and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-02992-7.