The Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus according to Changes in Obesity Status in Late Middle-Aged Adults: A Nationwide Cohort Study of Korea

BACKGROUND: Although obesity is a well-known risk factor of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), there is scant data on discriminating the contribution of previous obesity and recent weight gain on developing T2DM. METHODS: We analyzed the Korean National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening Cohort data from 2002 to 2015 where Korean residents underwent biennial health checkups. Participants were classified into four groups according to their obesity status (body mass index [BMI] ≥25 kg/m(2)) before and after turning 50 years old: maintaining normal (MN), becoming obese (BO), becoming normal (BN), and maintaining obese (MO). Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate the risk of T2DM factoring in the covariates age, sex, BMI, presence of impaired fasting glucose or hypertension, family history of diabetes, and smoking status. RESULTS: A total of 118,438 participants (mean age, 52.5±1.1 years; men, 45.2%) were prospectively evaluated for incident T2DM. A total of 7,339 (6.2%) participants were diagnosed with T2DM during a follow-up period of 4.8±2.6 years. Incidence rates of T2DM per 1,000 person-year were 9.20 in MN, 14.81 in BO, 14.42 in BN, 21.38 in MO. After factoring in covariates, participants in the groups BN (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.27) and MO (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.24) were at increased risk of developing T2DM compared to MN, whereas BO (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.17) was not. CONCLUSION: Having been obese before 50 years old increased the risk of developing T2DM in the future, but becoming obese after 50 did not. Therefore, it is important to maintain normal weight from early adulthood to prevent future metabolic perturbations.