Using residual regressions to quantify and map signal leakage in genomic prediction

BACKGROUND: Most genomic prediction applications in animal breeding use genotypes with tens of thousands of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). However, modern sequencing technologies and imputation algorithms can generate ultra-high-density genotypes (including millions of SNPs) at an affordable cost. Empirical studies have not produced clear evidence that using ultra-high-density genotypes can significantly improve prediction accuracy. However, (whole-genome) prediction accuracy is not very informative about the ability of a model to capture the genetic signals from specific genomic regions. To address this problem, we propose a simple methodology that detects chromosome regions for which a specific model (e.g., single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP)) may fail to fully capture the genetic signal present in such segments—a phenomenon that we refer to as signal leakage. We propose to detect regions with evidence of signal leakage by testing the association of residuals from a pedigree or a genomic model with SNP genotypes. We discuss how this approach can be used to map regions with signals that are poorly captured by a model and to identify strategies to fix those problems (e.g., using a different prior or increasing marker density). Finally, we explored the proposed approach to scan for signal leakage of different models (pedigree-based, ssGBLUP, and various Bayesian models) applied to growth-related phenotypes (average daily gain and backfat thickness) in pigs. RESULTS: We report widespread evidence of signal leakage for pedigree-based models. Including a percentage of animals with SNP data in ssGBLUP reduced the extent of signal leakage. However, local peaks of missed signals remained in some regions, even when all animals were genotyped. Using variable selection priors solves leakage points that are caused by excessive shrinkage of marker effects. Nevertheless, these models still miss signals in some regions due to low linkage disequilibrium between the SNPs on the array used and causal variants. Thus, we discuss how such problems could be addressed by adding sequence SNPs from those regions to the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS: Residual single-marker regression analysis is a simple approach that can be used to detect regional genomic signals that are poorly captured by a model and to indicate ways to fix such problems. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12711-023-00830-1.