Hemodynamic MRI parameters to predict asymptomatic unilateral carotid artery stenosis with random forest machine learning

BACKGROUND: Internal carotid artery stenosis (ICAS) can cause stroke and cognitive decline. Associated hemodynamic impairments, which are most pronounced within individual watershed areas (iWSA) between vascular territories, can be assessed with hemodynamic-oxygenation-sensitive MRI and may help to detect severely affected patients. We aimed to identify the most sensitive parameters and volumes of interest (VOI) to predict high-grade ICAS with random forest machine learning. We hypothesized an increased predictive ability considering iWSAs and a decreased cognitive performance in correctly classified patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty-four patients with asymptomatic, unilateral, high-grade carotid artery stenosis and 24 age-matched healthy controls underwent MRI comprising pseudo-continuous arterial spin labeling (pCASL), breath-holding functional MRI (BH-fMRI), dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC), T2 and T2(*) mapping, MPRAGE and FLAIR. Quantitative maps of eight perfusion, oxygenation and microvascular parameters were obtained. Mean values of respective parameters within and outside of iWSAs split into gray (GM) and white matter (WM) were calculated for both hemispheres and for interhemispheric differences resulting in 96 features. Random forest classifiers were trained on whole GM/WM VOIs, VOIs considering iWSAs and with additional feature selection, respectively. RESULTS: The most sensitive features in decreasing order were time-to-peak (TTP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and cerebral vascular reactivity (CVR), all of these inside of iWSAs. Applying iWSAs combined with feature selection yielded significantly higher receiver operating characteristics areas under the curve (AUC) than whole GM/WM VOIs (AUC: 0.84 vs. 0.90, p = 0.039). Correctly predicted patients presented with worse cognitive performances than frequently misclassified patients (Trail-making-test B: 152.5s vs. 94.4s, p = 0.034). CONCLUSION: Random forest classifiers trained on multiparametric MRI data allow identification of the most relevant parameters and VOIs to predict ICAS, which may improve personalized treatments.