Change in volumetric tumor growth rate after cytotoxic therapy is predictive of overall survival in recurrent glioblastoma

BACKGROUND: Alterations in tumor growth rate (TGR) in recurrent glioblastoma (rGBM) after treatment may be useful for identifying therapeutic activity. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of volumetric TGR alterations on overall survival (OS) in rGBM treated with chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy (RT). METHODS: Sixty-one rGBM patients treated with chemotherapy with or without concomitant radiation therapy (RT) at 1st or 2nd recurrence were retrospectively examined. Pre- and post-treatment contrast enhancing volumes were computed. Patients were considered “responders” if they reached progression-free survival at 6 months (PFS6) and showed a decrease in TGR after treatment and “non-responders” if they didn’t reach PFS6 or if TGR increased. RESULTS: Stratification by PFS6 and based on TGR resulted in significant differences in OS both for all patients and for patients without RT (P < 0.05). A decrease of TGR (P = 0.009), smaller baseline tumor volume (P = 0.02), O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase promoter methylation (P = 0.048) and fewer number of recurrences (P = 0.048) were significantly associated with longer OS after controlling for age, sex and concomitant RT. CONCLUSION: A decrease in TGR in patients with PFS6, along with smaller baseline tumor volume, were associated with a significantly longer OS in rGBM treated with chemotherapy with or without radiation. Importantly, all patients that exhibited PFS6 also showed a measurable decrease in TGR.