Predictive value of brain atrophy, serum biomarkers and information processing speed for early disease progression in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune-mediated demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). A clinical presentation of the disease is highly differentiated even from the earliest stages of the disease. The application of stratifying tests in clinical practice would allow for improving clinical decision-making including a proper assessment of treatment benefit/risk balance. METHODS: This prospective study included patients with MS diagnosed up to 1 year before recruitment. We analyzed serum biomarkers such as CXCL13, CHI3L1, OPN, IL-6, and GFAP and neurofilament light chains (NfLs); brain MRI parameters of linear atrophy such as bicaudate ratio (BCR), third ventricle width (TVW); and information processing speed were measured using the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) during the 2 years follow-up. RESULTS: The study included a total of 50 patients recruited shortly after the diagnosis of MS diagnosis (median 0 months; range 0–11 months), and the mean time of observation was 28 months (SD = 4.75). We observed a statistically significant increase in the EDSS score (Wilcoxon test: Z = 3.06, p = 0.002), BCR (Wilcoxon test: Z = 4.66, p < 0.001), and TVW (Wilcoxon test: Z = 2.84, p = 0.005) after 2 years of disease. Patients who had a significantly higher baseline level of NfL suffered from a more severe disease course as per the EDSS score (Mann–Whitney U-test: U = 107, Z = −2,74, p = 0.006) and presence of relapse (Mann–Whitney U-test: U = 188, Z = −2.01, p = 0.044). In the logistic regression model, none of the parameters was a significant predictor for the achieving of no evidence of disease activity status (NEDA). In the model considering all assessed parameters, only the level of NfL had a significant impact on disease progression, measured as the increase in EDSS (logistic regression: β = 0.002, p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: We confirmed that NfL levels in serum are associated with more active disease. Moreover, we found that TVW at the time of diagnosis was associated with an impairment in cognitive function measured by information processing speed at the end of the 2-year observation. The inclusion of serum NfL and TVW assessment early in the disease may be a good predictor of disease progression independent of NEDA.