Risk factor profile for newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: 4‐year follow‐up of annual health examinations in a Japanese Adult Cohort

BACKGROUND: Detecting unknown atrial fibrillation (AF) would provide an opportunity to prevent ischemic stroke by instituting appropriate anticoagulation. Although opportunistic screening of older patients is recommended in current guidelines, which patients may benefit from intensive AF screening remains unclear. We sought to clarify the risk factor profile for newly diagnosed AF in annual health examinations of a Japanese adult cohort. METHODS: Among 141 441 Japanese patients who underwent annual health examinations in 2014, 87 872 patients aged ≥20 years without known AF who had undergone electrocardiography were analyzed (mean age: 47 ± 12 years; 64% men). The absence of known AF was confirmed by prior electrocardiography in 2012 and/or 2013. Newly diagnosed AF was observed in 244 patients in 2014–2017 (mean age: 62 ± 12 years; 83% men). RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, waist circumference obesity (hazard ratio [HR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–1.99; p = .005) high blood pressure (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.01–3.59; p = .047), on‐treatment hypertension (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.01–2.31; p = .046), and daily alcohol drinking (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.52–3.12; p < .001) were significantly associated with newly diagnosed AF. CONCLUSIONS: In this Japanese cohort, waist circumference obesity, hypertension, and alcohol drinking were independent predictors of newly diagnosed AF in annual medical examinations. This finding encourages further evaluation of systematic AF screening programs in at‐risk populations.