Nephrology workforce in China: describing current status and evaluating the optimal capacity based on real-world data

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to characterize the current status of the nephrology workforce in China and evaluate its optimal capacity based on real-world patient mobility data. METHODS: Data on nephrologists in China were collected from two prominent online healthcare platforms using web crawlers and natural language processing techniques. Hospitalization records of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from January 2014 to December 2018 were extracted from a national administrative database in China. City-level paths of patient mobility were identified. Effects of nephrology workforce on patient mobility were analyzed using multivariate Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Altogether 9.13 nephrologists per million population (pmp) were in practice, with substantial city-level variations ranging from 0.16 to 88.79. The ratio of nephrologists to the estimated CKD population was 84.57 pmp. Among 6 415 559 hospitalizations of patients with CKD, 21.3% were cross-city hospitalizations and 7441 city-level paths of patient mobility with more than five hospitalizations were identified. After making adjustment for healthcare capacity, healthcare insurance, economic status, and travel characteristics, the Poisson regression models revealed that the number of nephrologists in both the source city (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.99, per 1 pmp increase) and destination city (IRR 1.07, per 1 pmp increase) were independently associated with patient mobility. An IRR plateau was observed when the number of nephrologists exceeded 12 pmp in the source city, while a rapidly increasing IRR was observed beyond 20 pmp in the destination city. CONCLUSIONS: The nephrology workforce in China exhibits significant geographic variations. Based on local healthcare needs, an optimal range of 12–20 nephrologists pmp is suggested. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12960-023-00851-3.