Association of blood pressure trajectories with coronary heart disease among the disabled population in Shanghai, China: a cohort study of 7 years following up

BACKGROUND: Much less is known about the importance of blood pressure (BP) trajectories concerning the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in people with disabilities. Our aim was to evaluate this association. METHODS: This cohort study surveyed 5711 adults from the Shanghai Disability Health Survey from June 2012 to June 2019. The latent class growth mixture model was used to examine distinct BP trajectories. We evaluated the association of BP trajectories with the risk of CHD by Cox proportional hazard models. The model for CHD risk fitted to BP trajectories was compared with models fitted to other BP-related indicators by goodness-of-fit, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 71.74 months, 686 cases (median age was 49.03 (54.49, 58.55) years, 51.90% female) with CHD were identified, with a cumulative incidence of 12.01%. Systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were categorized into three classes, respectively. A statistically significant association was only observed between SBP trajectories and CHD. Compared with the normotensive stable SBP group (n = 1956), the prehypertension-stable group (n = 3268) had a higher risk (adjust hazards ratio (aHR) = 1.266, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.014–1.581), and the stage 1 hypertension-decreasing group (n = 487) had the highest risk (aHR = 1.609, 95%CI 1.157–2.238). Among the BP-related indicators, the SBP trajectory was the strongest predictor of new-onset CHD. Findings were similar when sensitivity analyses were conducted. CONCLUSIONS: SBP trajectory was a more important risk factor for CHD than other BP-related indicators and stringent BP control strategies may be effective for primary CHD prevention in the disabled population. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40001-023-01240-1.