Analysis and prediction of postoperative recurrence of unilateral upper ureteral calculi in 243 cases (nomogram)

Objective: This study aimed to identify the risk factors for postoperative recurrence of unilateral upper ureteral calculi and develop a predictive nomogram. Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 243 patients diagnosed with unilateral upper ureteral calculi who were treated at our hospital between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2018. Patients were divided into two groups: recurrence or non-recurrence cohort. Differences in age, gender, smoking and/or drinking habit, laterality, stone diameter, ureteral stricture, stone incarceration, urinary tract infection, surgical intervention, operation time, body mass index, and metabolic syndrome were analyzed. Discrete risk factors were screened, and a nomogram was developed to predict the probability of stone recurrence. Results: The study found that the recurrence of ureteral calculi was associated with factors including stone diameter, ureteral stricture, stone incarceration, surgical intervention, operation time, metabolic syndrome, body mass index, triglycerides, diabetes, and high blood pressure (p < 0.05). Ureteral stricture, surgical intervention, metabolic syndrome, and triglycerides were found to be discrete risk factors for stone recurrence (p < 0.05). In addition, the study revealed that the stone recurrence rate of metabolic syndrome patients was significantly elevated (p < 0.05), as demonstrated by the survival curve. Lastly, using the nomogram, with an area under the curve value of 0.929, the recurrence rate of ureteral calculi was predicted. Conclusions: The study identified that preoperative ureteral stricture, laparoscopic ureterolithotomy, metabolic syndrome, and triglycerides are closely related to postoperative recurrence of ureteral calculi. The nomogram developed in this study can be used as a predictive tool for the recurrence rate of ureteral calculi.