Evolution of bone densitometry parameters and risk of fracture in coeliac disease: a 10-year perspective

BACKGROUND: Metabolic bone disease is frequently found in patients with coeliac disease (CD). Despite its high prevalence, international guidelines are partially discordant about its management due to the lack of long-term data. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated a large dataset of prospectively collected data of CD patients assessing the variation of DXA parameters and estimated fracture risk according to the FRAX(®) score in a 10-year follow-up. Incident fractures are reported, and the predictive ability of the FRAX(®) score is verified. RESULTS: We identified 107 patients with low bone density (BMD) at the diagnosis of CD and a 10-year follow-up. After improving at the first follow-up, T-scores slowly reduced over time but with no clinically relevant differences between the first and last examination (lumbar spine: from − 2.07 to − 2.07, p = 1.000; femoral neck: from − 1.37 to − 1.55, p = 0.006). Patients with osteoporosis at the index measurement had more marked fluctuations than those with osteopenia; the latter group also showed minimal modifications of the FRAX(®) score over time. Six incident major fragility fractures occurred, with a good predictive ability of the FRAX(®) (AUC 0.826). CONCLUSION: Adult CD patients with osteopenia and no risk factors had substantially stable DXA parameters and fracture risk during a 10-year follow-up. A dilated interval between follow-up DXA for these patients could be considered to reduce diagnosis-related time and costs, maintaining a 2-year interval for patients with osteoporosis or risk factors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11739-023-03307-7.