Long-term comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive monotherapies in primary prevention of cardiovascular events: a population-based retrospective inception cohort study in the Netherlands

OBJECTIVE: To determine the long-term effectiveness of antihypertensive monotherapies in primary prevention of cardiovascular events. DESIGN: Retrospective inception cohort study covering a 25-year study period. SETTING: University Groningen IADB.nl pharmacy prescription database with data from 1996 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 18 years or older, free of any cardiovascular disease (CVD) drug therapies prior to initiation of a preventive antihypertensive monotherapy (ACE inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), beta-blockers (BBs), calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and thiazides). OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was the time to first prescription of acute cardiac drug therapy (CDT) measured by valid drug proxies to identify a first major CVD event in patients without a history of CVD. RESULTS: Among 33 427 initiators, 5205 (15.6%) patients experienced an acute CDT. The average follow-up time was 7.9±5.5 years. The 25-year incidence rate per 1000 person-years were 25.3, 22.4, 18.2, 24.4 and 22.0 for ACEI, ARB, BB, CCB and thiazide starters, respectively. Inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox regression showed that thiazide starters had lower hazards than the reference BB starters (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.81 to 0.95). Among patients on diabetes drugs, risks were lower (HR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.85). CCB starters had higher hazards than reference BB (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.36). The overall estimated number needed to treat for thiazides compared with BBs to prevent one acute CDT in 25 years was 26, and four among patients on diabetes drugs. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustments for confounders, patients starting on monotherapy with thiazides had a lower incidence of CDT compared with those starting on BBs, notably among patients on diabetes drugs. Conversely, patients who began CCB monotherapy had a higher incidence of CDT compared with those starting on BBs. Other monotherapies had comparable incidence of cardiovascular disease compared with BBs.