Supervised machine learning classification of psychosis biotypes based on brain structure: findings from the Bipolar-Schizophrenia network for intermediate phenotypes (B-SNIP)

Traditional diagnostic formulations of psychotic disorders have low correspondence with underlying disease neurobiology. This has led to a growing interest in using brain-based biomarkers to capture biologically-informed psychosis constructs. Building upon our prior work on the B-SNIP Psychosis Biotypes, we aimed to examine whether structural MRI (an independent biomarker not used in the Biotype development) can effectively classify the Biotypes. Whole brain voxel-wise grey matter density (GMD) maps from T1-weighted images were used to train and test (using repeated randomized train/test splits) binary L2-penalized logistic regression models to discriminate psychosis cases (n = 557) from healthy controls (CON, n = 251). A total of six models were evaluated across two psychosis categorization schemes: (i) three Biotypes (B1, B2, B3) and (ii) three DSM diagnoses (schizophrenia (SZ), schizoaffective (SAD) and bipolar (BD) disorders). Above-chance classification accuracies were observed in all Biotype (B1 = 0.70, B2 = 0.65, and B3 = 0.56) and diagnosis (SZ = 0.64, SAD = 0.64, and BD = 0.59) models. However, the only model that showed evidence of specificity was B1, i.e., the model was able to discriminate B1 vs. CON and did not misclassify other psychosis cases (B2 or B3) as B1 at rates above nominal chance. The GMD-based classifier evidence for B1 showed a negative association with an estimate of premorbid general intellectual ability, regardless of group membership, i.e. psychosis or CON. Our findings indicate that, complimentary to clinical diagnoses, the B-SNIP Psychosis Biotypes may offer a promising approach to capture specific aspects of psychosis neurobiology.