Trends in baseline triglyceride-glucose index and association with predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk among type 2 diabetes patients in Thailand

Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Our study determined the trends of the TyG index and its relationship to predicted CVD risk among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). A serial cross-sectional study was conducted including 63,815 participants with T2D aged 30–74 years without a history of CVD. The predicted CVD risk was based on the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized for identifying the cutoff point of TyG index to predict intermediate-to-high CVD risk. The relationship between TyG index and predicted CVD risk was tested using linear and logistic regression. Decreasing trends of TyG index were observed between 2014 and 2018 (p < 0.001). ROC curve analysis of the TyG index indicated an AUC of 0.57 (95% CI 0.56–0.57, p < 0.001) in predicting intermediate-to-high predicted CVD risk, with a cutoff value of TyG index > 9.2 (sensitivity of 55.7%, specificity of 46.8%). An independent relationship between the TyG index and predicted CVD risk was observed. High TyG index was independently associated with intermediate-to-high predicted CVD risk. From our study, the TyG index was positively related to predicted 10-year CVD risk. However, the predictive ability of the TyG index in predicting the intermediate-to-high predicted 10-year CVD risk among patients with T2D remained questionable.