Performance of clinical risk scores and prediction models to identify pathogenic germline variants in patients with advanced prostate cancer

PURPOSE: Determining the frequency and distribution of pathogenic germline variants (PGVs) in Austrian prostate cancer (PCa) patients and to assess the accuracy of different clinical risk scores to correctly predict PGVs. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 313 men with advanced PCa. A comprehensive personal and family history was obtained based on predefined questionnaires. Germline DNA sequencing was performed between 2019 and 2021 irrespective of family history, metastatic or castration status or age at diagnosis. Clinical risk scores for hereditary cancer syndromes were evaluated and a PCa-specific score was developed to assess the presence of PGVs. RESULTS: PGV presence was associated with metastasis (p = 0.047) and castration resistance (p = 0.011), but not with personal cancer history or with relatives with any type of cancer. Clinical risk scores (Manchester score, PREMM5 score, Amsterdam II criteria or Johns Hopkins criteria) showed low sensitivities (3.3–20%) for assessing the probability of PGV presence. A score specifically designed for PCa patients stratifying patients into low- or high-risk regarding PGV probability, correctly classified all PGV carriers as high-risk, whereas a third of PCa patients without PGVs was classified as low risk of the presence of PGVs. CONCLUSION: Application of common clinical risk scores based on family history are not suitable to identify PCa patients with high PGV probabilities. A PCa-specific score stratified PCa patients into low- or high-risk of PGV presence with sufficient accuracy, and germline DNA sequencing may be omitted in patients with a low score. Further studies are needed to evaluate the score. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00345-023-04535-4.