Genetic identification and reiterated captures suggest that the Astyanax mexicanus El Pachón cavefish population is closed and declining

The sizes of Astyanax mexicanus blind cavefish populations of North-East Mexico are demographic parameters of great importance for investigating a variety of ecological, evolutionary, and conservation issues. However, few estimates have been obtained. For these mobile animals living in an environment difficult to explore as a whole, methods based on capture-mark-recapture are appropriate, but their feasibility and interpretation of results depend on several assumptions that must be carefully examined. Here, we provide evidence that minimally invasive genetic identification from captures at different time intervals (three days and three years) can give insights into cavefish population size dynamics as well as other important demographic parameters of interest. We also provide tools to calibrate sampling and genotyping efforts necessary to reach a given level of precision. Our results suggest that the El Pachón cave population is currently very small, of an order of magnitude of a few hundreds of individuals, and is distributed in a relatively isolated area. The probable decline in population size in the El Pachón cave since the last census in 1971 raises serious conservation issues.