Age-Period-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer Mortality in Brazil in State Capitals and in Non-Capital Municipalities from 1980 to 2019

Breast cancer was identified as the cancer with the highest mortality rate among women in Brazil. This study analyzed the effects of age, period and birth cohort on the breast cancer mortality rate for Brazilian women, comparing state capitals and non-capital municipalities. Population and deaths data were extracted from the Brazilian Unified Health System database for women aged 30 years or older, for the years between 1980 and 2019. The effects were analyzed using the age-period-cohort model. Age effect on breast cancer mortality is observed in the model through higher mortality rates at older ages. Period effect is similar in all regions in the form of a marked increase in the rate ratio (RR) in non-capital municipalities by period than in state capitals. The RR of birth cohorts in the state capitals remained stable (north, northeast and central-west regions) or decreased followed by an increase in the most recent cohorts (Brazil as a whole and the southeast and south regions). The RR for the other municipalities, however, showed a progressive increase in the cohorts for all regions. Policies and actions focused on breast cancer in women should consider these differences among Brazilian regions, state capitals and other municipalities.