Ionospheric Weather at Two Starlink Launches during Two-Phase Geomagnetic Storms

The launch of a series of Starlink internet satellites on 3 February 2022 (S-36), and 7 July 2022 (S-49), coincided with the development of two-phase geomagnetic storms. The first launch S-36 took place in the middle of the moderate two-phase space weather storm, which induced significant technological consequences. After liftoff on 3 February at 18:13 UT, all Starlink satellites reached an initial altitude of 350 km in perigee and had to reach an altitude of ~550 km after the maneuver. However, 38 of 49 launched spacecrafts did not reach the planned altitude, left orbit due to increased drag and reentered the atmosphere on 8 February. A geomagnetic storm on 3–4 February 2022 has increased the density of the neutral atmosphere up to 50%, increasing drag of the satellites and dooming most of them. The second launch of S-49 at 13:11 UT on 7 July 2022 was successful at the peak of the two-phase geomagnetic storm. The global ionospheric maps of the total electron content (GIM-TEC) have been used to produce the ionospheric weather GIM-W index maps and Global Electron Content (GEC). We observed a GEC increment from 10 to 24% for the storm peak after the Starlink launch at both storms, accompanying the neutral density increase identified earlier. GIM-TEC maps are available with a lag (delay) of 1–2 days (real-time GIMs have a lag less than 15 min), so the GIMs forecast is required by the time of the launch. Comparisons of different GIMs forecast techniques are provided including the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), Beijing (BADG and CASG) and IZMIRAN (JPRG) 1- and 2-day forecasts, and the Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC-ionSAT) forecast for 6, 12, 18, 24 and 48 h in advance. We present the results of the analysis of evolution of the ionospheric parameters during both events. The poor correspondence between observed and predicted GIM-TEC and GEC confirms an urgent need for the industry–science awareness of now-casting/forecasting/accessibility of GIM-TECs during the space weather events.