Prediction of Emergency Cesarean Section Using Detectable Maternal and Fetal Characteristics Among Saudi Women

BACKGROUND: The worldwide rate of cesarean section (CS) is increasing. Development of prediction models for a specific population may improve the unmet need for CS as well as reduce the overuse of CS. OBJECTIVE: To explore risk factors associated with emergency CS, and to determine the accuracy of predicting it. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the medical records of women who delivered between January 1, 2021-December 2022 was conducted, relevant maternal and neonatal data were retrieved. RESULTS: Out of 1793 deliveries, 447 (25.0%) had emergency CS. Compared to control, the risk of emergency CS was higher in primiparous women (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.06), in women with higher Body mass index (BMI) (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.47), in association with history of previous CS (OR 4.81, 95% CI 3.24 to 7.15) and in women with abnormal amniotic fluid (OR 2.30, 95% CI 1.55 to 3.41). Additionally, women with hypertensive disorders had a 176% increased risk of emergency CS (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.35–5.63). Of note, the risk of emergency CS was more than three times higher in women who delivered a small for gestational age infant (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.93–5.59). Based on the number of risk factors, a prediction model was developed, about 80% of pregnant women in the emergency CS group scored higher grades compared to control group. The area under the curve was 0.72, indicating a good discriminant ability of the model. CONCLUSION: This study identified several risk factors associated with emergency CS in pregnant Saudi women. A prediction model showed 72% accuracy in predicting the likelihood of emergency CS. This information can be useful to individualize the risk of emergency CS, and to implement appropriate measures to prevent unnecessary CS.