Predictive performance of the STarT Back tool for poor outcomes in patients with low back pain: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Subgroups for Targeted Treatment Back Tool (SBT) is a brief multiple-construct risk prediction tool for patients with low back pain (LBP). Thus far, the predictive ability of this tool has been inconsistent. Therefore, we aim to conduct a literature review on the predictive ability of the SBT to determine the outcomes of patients with LBP. The results of this review should improve the ability of the SBT to predict poor outcomes in patients with LBP. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Databases including PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure Databases, Chinese Science and Technology Journal Database, and Wanfang will be searched for studies on SBT and LBP from their inception until 31 March 2023. Longitudinal studies investigating the association between SBT subgroups and LBP outcomes, including pain, disability and quality of life, will be included. The identified studies will be independently screened for eligibility by two reviewers. A standardised sheet will be used to extract data. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale will be used to assess the methodological quality of the included studies. Heterogeneity will be evaluated by the χ(2) test with Cochran’s Q statistic and quantified by the I(2) statistic. The results will be synthesised qualitatively and presented as pooled risk ratios or beta coefficients quantitatively. The results will also be presented using their 95% confidence limits. Publication bias will be assessed using the method proposed by Egger and by visual inspection of funnel plots. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study is a secondary analysis of original studies that received ethics approval. Therefore, prior ethical approval is not required for this study. The findings will be submitted to relevant peer-reviewed journals for publication and presented at profession-specific conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO registration number CRD42022309189.