Immediate and long-term outcomes after treat-all among people living with HIV in China: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND: In 2003, China implemented free antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLHIV), establishing an eligibility threshold of CD4 < 200 cells/μl. Subsequently, the entry criteria were revised in 2012 (eligibility threshold: CD4 ≤ 350 cells/μl), 2014 (CD4 ≤ 500 cells/μl), and 2016 (treat-all). However, the impact of treat-all policy on HIV care and treatment indicators in China is unknown. We aimed to elucidate the immediate and long-term impact of the implementation of treat-all policy in China. METHODS: Anonymized programmatic data on ART initiation and collection in PLHIV who newly started ART were retrieved between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019, from two provincial and municipal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and ten major infectious disease hospitals specialized in HIV care in China. We used Poisson and quasi-Poisson segmented regression models to estimate the immediate and long-term impact of treat-all on three key indicators: monthly proportion of 30-day ART initiation, mean CD4 counts (cells/μl) at ART initiation, and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (year). We built separate models according to gender, age, route of transmission and region. RESULTS: Monthly data on ART initiation and collection were available for 75,516 individuals [gender: 83.8% males; age: median 39 years, interquartile range (IQR): 28–53; region: 18.5% Northern China, 10.9% Northeastern China, 17.5% Southern China, 49.2% Southwestern China]. In the first month of treat-all, compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual, there was a significant increase in proportion of 30-day ART initiation [+ 12.6%, incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.126, 95% CI: 1.033–1.229; P = 0.007] and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (+ 7.0%, IRR = 1.070, 95% CI: 1.021–1.120; P = 0.004), while there was no significant change in mean CD4 at ART initiation (IRR = 0.990, 95% CI: 0.956–1.026; P = 0.585). By December 2019, the three outcomes were not significantly different from expected levels. In the stratified analysis, compared with the contemporaneous counterfactual, mean CD4 at ART initiation showed significant increases in Northern China (+ 3.3%, IRR = 1.033, 95% CI: 1.001–1.065; P = 0.041) and Northeastern China (+ 8.0%, IRR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.003–1.164; P = 0.042) in the first month of treat-all; mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis showed significant increases in male (+ 5.6%, IRR = 1.056, 95% CI: 1.010–1.104; P = 0.016), female (+ 14.8%, IRR = 1.148, 95% CI: 1.062–1.240; P < 0.001), aged 26–35 (+ 5.3%, IRR = 1.053, 95% CI: 1.001–1.109; P = 0.048) and > 50 (+ 7.8%, IRR = 1.078, 95% CI: 1.000–1.161; P = 0.046), heterosexual transmission (+ 12.4%, IRR = 1.124, 95% CI: 1.042–1.213; P = 0.002) and Southwestern China (+ 12.9%, IRR = 1.129, 95% CI: 1.055–1.208; P < 0.001) in the first month of treat-all. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of treat-all policy in China was associated with a positive effect on HIV care and treatment outcomes. To advance the work of rapid ART, efforts should be made to streamline the testing and ART initiation process, provide comprehensive support services, and address the issue of uneven distribution of medical resources. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-023-01119-7.