Development and validation of a nomogram based on biparametric MRI PI-RADS v2.1 and clinical parameters to avoid unnecessary prostate biopsies

BACKGROUND: Biparametric MRI (bpMRI) is a faster, contrast-free, and less expensive MRI protocol that facilitates the detection of prostate cancer. The aim of this study is to determine whether a biparametric MRI PI-RADS v2.1 score-based model could reduce unnecessary biopsies in patients with suspected prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: The patients who underwent MRI-guided biopsies and systematic biopsies between January 2020 and January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. The development cohort used to derive the prediction model consisted of 275 patients. Two validation cohorts included 201 patients and 181 patients from 2 independent institutions. Predictive models based on the bpMRI PI-RADS v2.1 score (bpMRI score) and clinical parameters were used to detect clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) and compared by analyzing the area under the curve (AUC) and decision curves. Spearman correlation analysis was utilized to determine the relationship between International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade and clinical parameters/bpMRI score. RESULTS: Logistic regression models were constructed using data from the development cohort to generate nomograms. By applying the models to the all cohorts, the AUC for csPCa was significantly higher for the bpMRI PI-RADS v2.1 score-based model than for the clinical model in both cohorts (p < 0.001). Considering the test trade-offs, urologists would agree to perform 10 fewer bpMRIs to avoid one unnecessary biopsy, with a risk threshold of 10–20% in practice. Correlation analysis showed a strong correlation between the bpMRI score and ISUP grade. CONCLUSION: A predictive model based on the bpMRI score and clinical parameters significantly improved csPCa risk stratification, and the bpMRI score can be used to determine the aggressiveness of PCa prior to biopsy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-023-01074-7.