Potential value of ctDNA monitoring in metastatic HR + /HER2 − breast cancer: longitudinal ctDNA analysis in the phase Ib MONALEESASIA trial

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the use of liquid biopsies, but data on longitudinal analyses of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) remain relatively limited. Here, we report a longitudinal ctDNA analysis of MONALEESASIA, a phase Ib trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of ribociclib plus endocrine therapy (ET) in Asian patients with hormone receptor–positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2–negative advanced breast cancer. METHODS: MONALEESASIA enrolled premenopausal and postmenopausal Japanese and postmenopausal non-Japanese Asian patients. All patients received ribociclib with ET (letrozole, fulvestrant, or tamoxifen with goserelin). ctDNA was analyzed using a targeted next-generation sequencing panel of 572 cancer-related genes and correlated by best overall response (BOR). RESULTS: Five hundred seventy-four cell-free DNA samples from 87 patients were tested. The most frequently altered genes at baseline included PIK3CA (29%) and TP53 (22%). Treatment with ribociclib plus ET decreased ctDNA in most patients at the first on-treatment time point, regardless of dose or ET partner. Patients with partial response and stable disease had lower ctDNA at baseline that remained low until data cutoff if no progressive disease occurred. Most patients with progressive disease as the best response had higher ctDNA at baseline that remained high at the end of treatment. For patients with partial response and stable disease with subsequent progression, ctDNA increased towards the end of treatment in most patients, with a median lead time of 83 days (14–309 days). In some patients with BOR of partial response who experienced disease progression later, specific gene alterations and total ctDNA fraction increased; this was sometimes observed concurrently with the development of new lesions without a change in target lesion size. Patients with alterations in PIK3CA and TP53 at baseline had shorter median progression-free survival compared with patients with wild-type PIK3CA and TP53, 12.7 and 7.3 months vs 19.2 and 19.4 months, respectively (P = .016 and P = .0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Higher ctDNA levels and PIK3CA and TP53 alterations detected at baseline were associated with inferior outcomes. On-treatment ctDNA levels were associated with different patterns based on BOR. Longitudinal tracking of ctDNA may be useful for monitoring tumor status and detection of alterations with treatment implications. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02333370. Registered on January 7, 2015. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-03017-z.