The Natural History Model of Hepatitis C Virus Infection and the Economic Evaluation of Alpha Interferon Treatment

Interferon (IFN) therapy is used for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) disease, but is so expensive that it creates controversy as to whether or not it is effective use of limited health care resources. In order to make this judgement possible, it must be necessary to build a comprehensive disease model of HCV infection from social perspective. A Markov chain model of the natural history of HCV infection in male patients was developed. Parameters on the clinical phase of the disease were adopted from published reports, but those of the non-clinical phase were estimated from the data on blood donation and mortality rates from the disease. Then, adding in the modeling of treatment outcome from IFN therapy and cost-benefit analysis, IFN therapy was economically evaluated.Using this model, it was shown that (1) IFN therapy for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) would be economically beneficial at least in the Japanese situation, (2) the complete response rate to therapy would be the most sensitive factor affecting outcome, and (3) the younger the person cured by IFN therapy, the greater the benefit seen.These results demonstrate that IFN therapy would be beneficial in the case of the CHC patients (male).