Spatial correlation analysis and prediction of carbon stock of “Production-living-ecological spaces” in the three northeastern provinces, China

The “Production-Living-Ecological Space” (PLES) is a paramount indicator in the filed of territory space development and optimization in China, under the new era. Exploring the driving factors of the PLES'land expansion is of great significance for improving space utilization, mitigating severe climate changes, and promoting green, healthy and sustainable development. In the background of the “Carbon Emissions Peak and Carbon Neutrality” strategy, analyzing and predicting the carbon stock of PLES is effective to boosting the achievement of ‘Dual-Carbon’ vision. Based on the above research questions， this study constructs the PLES based on statistics about land use (Year 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020) in three northeastern provinces, and reveals the spatial correlation of PLES’ carbon stock in the research area through ArcGIS spatial analysis and InVEST model. Then, the PLUS model was used to clarify the contribution of each driver to the conversion of space land, and to predict the distribution of the PLES pattern and the carbon stock's spatial correlation in 2030 and 2060 under the Natural-Development Scene and Ecological-Protection-Development Scene. Results show that: (1) The PLES in the three northeastern provinces of China is primarily green ecological space (55.71%) and agricultural production space (38.10%), while industrial production space (3.60%) and urban living space (2.76%) expand significantly, and green ecological space (−0.17%) and blue ecological space (−0.89%) are on a recession trend. Besides, 2000–2010 is the most intense period of all kinds of space land transformation in the study area. (2) Population density, proximity to roads at all levels, annual average temperature and elevation are the prime drivers of PLES’ profile within the scope of the study region, but the contribution rate is significant difference. (3) The urban living space decreases and the green and blue ecological space increases significantly in the predicted years under the scene of Natural-Development and Ecological-Protection development; the pattern of PLES is relatively stable in the predicted years under both scenarios. (4) The spatial correlation of carbon stock is closely related to the distribution of PLES, with the high-value significant regions primarily in the distribution region of green ecological space, otherwise, the low-value significant regions mostly concentrated in the region with complex spatial land use types and large spatial development intensity; the overall structure within the scope of the study region shows a layout of high value areas surrounding low value areas. It can show that insisting on the ecological civilization construction is an effective way to achieve sustainable development and practice the “double carbon” strategy; in the future spatial land use control, ecological protection measures should still be adopted to ensure the sustainable development and positive operation of the study area.