Association of Physical Activity and Parkinson Disease in Women: Long-term Follow-up of the E3N Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Previous cohort studies reported that a single measure of physical activity (PA) assessed at baseline was associated with lower Parkinson disease (PD) incidence, but a meta-analysis suggested that this association was restricted to men. Because of the long prodromal phase of the disease, reverse causation could not be excluded as a potential explanation. Our objective was to study the association between time-varying PA and PD in women using lagged analyses to address the potential for reverse causation and to compare PA trajectories in patients before diagnosis and matched controls. METHODS: We used data from the Etude Epidémiologique auprès de femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale (1990–2018), a cohort study of women affiliated with a national health insurance plan for persons working in education. PA was self-reported in 6 questionnaires over the follow-up. As questions changed across questionnaires, we created a time-varying latent PA (LPA) variable using latent process mixed models. PD was ascertained using a multistep validation process based on medical records or a validated algorithm based on drug claims. We set up a nested case-control study to examine differences in LPA trajectories using multivariable linear mixed models with a retrospective timescale. Cox proportional hazards models with age as the timescale and adjusted for confounders were used to estimate the association between time-varying LPA and PD incidence. Our main analysis used a 10-year lag to account for reverse causation; sensitivity analyses used 5-, 15-, and 20-year lags. RESULTS: Analyses of trajectories (1,196 cases and 23,879 controls) showed that LPA was significantly lower in cases than in controls throughout the follow-up, including 29 years before diagnosis; the difference between cases and controls started to increase ∼10 years before diagnosis (p interaction = 0.003). In our main survival analysis, of 95,354 women free of PD in 2000, 1,074 women developed PD over a mean follow-up of 17.2 years. PD incidence decreased with increasing LPA (p trend = 0.001), with 25% lower incidence in those in the highest quartile compared with the lowest (adjusted hazard ratio 0.75, 95% CI 0.63–0.89). Using longer lags yielded similar conclusions. DISCUSSION: Higher PA level is associated with lower PD incidence in women, not explained by reverse causation. These results are important for planning interventions for PD prevention.