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A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival
BACKGROUND: Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease, accounting for <1% of all male carcinomas. Lack of prospective data, the current therapy for MBC is based on retrospective analysis or information that is extrapolated from studies of female patients. We constructed a nomogram model for pred...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10436472/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37601680 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2023.1068187 |
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author | Wen, Yahui Bai, Junjie Zheng, Caihong Liu, Jiameng Lin, Shunguo Han, Hui Xu, Chunsen |
author_facet | Wen, Yahui Bai, Junjie Zheng, Caihong Liu, Jiameng Lin, Shunguo Han, Hui Xu, Chunsen |
author_sort | Wen, Yahui |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease, accounting for <1% of all male carcinomas. Lack of prospective data, the current therapy for MBC is based on retrospective analysis or information that is extrapolated from studies of female patients. We constructed a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of MBC patients and verify its feasibility using data from China. METHODS: Constructed a predictive model using 1224 MBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry between 2010 and 2015. The performance of the model was externally validated between 2002 to 2021 using 44 MBC patients from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital. The independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram was constructed to predict individual survival outcomes for MBC patients. The discriminative power, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the nomogram were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 1224 male breast cancer patients were in the training cohort and 44 in the validation cohort. T status (p<0.001), age at diagnosis (p<0.001), histologic grade (p=0.008), M status (p<0.001), ER status (p=0.001), Her2 status (p=0.019), chemotherapy (p=0.015) were independently associated with OS. The diagnostic performance of this model was evaluated and validated using ROC curves on the training and validation datasets. In the training cohort, the nomogram-predicted AUC value was 0.786 for 3-year OS and 0.767 for 5-year OS. In the validation cohort, the nomogram-predicted AUC value was 0.893 for 3-year OS and 0.895 for 5-year OS. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was more benefit than the AJCC stage. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram that predicts 3-year and 5-year survival in MBC patients. Validation using bootstrap sampling revealed optimal discrimination and calibration, suggesting that the nomogram may have clinical utility. The results remain reproducible in the validation cohort which included Chinese data. The model was superior to the AJCC stage system as shown in the decision curve analysis (DCA). |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10436472 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-104364722023-08-19 A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival Wen, Yahui Bai, Junjie Zheng, Caihong Liu, Jiameng Lin, Shunguo Han, Hui Xu, Chunsen Front Oncol Oncology BACKGROUND: Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare disease, accounting for <1% of all male carcinomas. Lack of prospective data, the current therapy for MBC is based on retrospective analysis or information that is extrapolated from studies of female patients. We constructed a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival (OS) of MBC patients and verify its feasibility using data from China. METHODS: Constructed a predictive model using 1224 MBC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry between 2010 and 2015. The performance of the model was externally validated between 2002 to 2021 using 44 MBC patients from the Fujian Medical University Union Hospital. The independent prognostic factors were selected by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The nomogram was constructed to predict individual survival outcomes for MBC patients. The discriminative power, calibration, and clinical effectiveness of the nomogram were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 1224 male breast cancer patients were in the training cohort and 44 in the validation cohort. T status (p<0.001), age at diagnosis (p<0.001), histologic grade (p=0.008), M status (p<0.001), ER status (p=0.001), Her2 status (p=0.019), chemotherapy (p=0.015) were independently associated with OS. The diagnostic performance of this model was evaluated and validated using ROC curves on the training and validation datasets. In the training cohort, the nomogram-predicted AUC value was 0.786 for 3-year OS and 0.767 for 5-year OS. In the validation cohort, the nomogram-predicted AUC value was 0.893 for 3-year OS and 0.895 for 5-year OS. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was more benefit than the AJCC stage. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a nomogram that predicts 3-year and 5-year survival in MBC patients. Validation using bootstrap sampling revealed optimal discrimination and calibration, suggesting that the nomogram may have clinical utility. The results remain reproducible in the validation cohort which included Chinese data. The model was superior to the AJCC stage system as shown in the decision curve analysis (DCA). Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-08-04 /pmc/articles/PMC10436472/ /pubmed/37601680 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2023.1068187 Text en Copyright © 2023 Wen, Bai, Zheng, Liu, Lin, Han and Xu https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Oncology Wen, Yahui Bai, Junjie Zheng, Caihong Liu, Jiameng Lin, Shunguo Han, Hui Xu, Chunsen A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title | A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title_full | A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title_fullStr | A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title_full_unstemmed | A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title_short | A nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
title_sort | nomogram for predicting the risk of male breast cancer for overall survival |
topic | Oncology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10436472/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37601680 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fonc.2023.1068187 |
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