Life-expectancy changes during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019–2021: estimates from Japan, a country with low pandemic impact

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic had a low impact on Japan in 2020, but the size of the epidemic increased considerably there in 2021. This study made a statistical analysis of life expectancy changes up to the end of 2021 in Japan. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate changes in life expectancy from 2019 to 2021 associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we decomposed the life expectancy changes from 2020–2021 into age-specific and cause of death-specific contributions. METHODS: We used the absolute number of deaths by age and prefecture in Japan to calculate life expectancy from 2019–21 at both national and prefectural levels, and also examined the correlation between life expectancy gap and annual number of COVID-19 cases, total person-days spent in intensive care, and documented deaths due to COVID-19. We used the Arriaga decomposition method to decompose national life expectancy changes from 2020 to 2021 into age and cause of death components. RESULTS: From 2019–2020, Japan’s national level life expectancy across the entire population was extended by 0.24 years. From 2020–2021, it shortened by 0.15 years. The life expectancy shortened more among women (0.15 years) than men (0.12 years). There was significant heterogeneity in life expectancy changes from 2020–2021 by prefecture. It ranged from the maximum shortening of 0.57 years in Tottori prefecture to the maximum extension of 0.23 years in Fukui. The regression analysis revealed the negative correlation between the life expectancy change and burden of COVID-19 at prefectural level. The decomposition of life expectancy changes at birth from 2020–2021 showed that losses in life expectancy were largely attributable to the mortality of the population over 70 years old. Changes in life expectancy among infants and working-age adults mostly contributed to lengthening overall life expectancy. Among leading major causes of death, deaths due to neoplastic tumor and cardiovascular diseases contributed to shortening life expectancy, whereas respiratory diseases did not. CONCLUSION: The decades-long increasing trend in life expectancy was suspended by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, life expectancy changes from 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 were small in Japan. This may be attributable to the small epidemiological impact of COVID-19 during this time period, but nonetheless, the negative impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy was indicated in the present study. The chance of death accelerated in older people in 2021, but a smaller number of deaths than usual among infants and working age adults contributed to extended life expectancy, and the change in the cause of death structure under the COVID-19 pandemic also significantly contributed to shortening life expectancy.