Metabolic Unhealthiness is Associated With Increased Risk of Critical COVID-19 Pneumonia and Inpatient Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Obesity or Overweight

Background and aims Being metabolically unhealthy (MU) is defined as having either hypertension, hyperlipidemia, type 2 diabetes mellitus/pre-diabetes, or fatty liver disease. We aimed to determine if MU was associated with severe COVID-19 pneumonia (severe disease). Methods We performed a single-center retrospective study between March 2020 and August 2021 for patients with overweight or obesity hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia. Logistic regression analysis was utilized to derive a risk score for severe disease. The accuracy of the model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) and bootstrap resampling. Results A total of 334 of 450 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonia (74.2%) were MU. Patients who were MU had higher in-hospital mortality (10.5% vs. 2.6%) and longer length of hospitalization (median 6 vs. 4 days). MU was not associated with severe disease, p=0.311. On multivariable analysis, older age, male sex, and Asian race were associated with severe disease. Not being vaccinated was associated with doubled odds of severe disease. The AUROCC of the final model was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.71). The risk score at the lowest quintile had a 33.1% to 65.5% predicted risk and a 58.7% observed risk of severe disease, whereas, at the highest quintile, there was an 85.7% to 97.7% predicted risk and an 89.7% observed risk of severe disease. Conclusion Being MU was not a predictor of severe disease, even though mortality was higher despite having higher rates of vaccination. This risk score may help to predict severe disease in hospitalized patients with obesity or overweight. External validation is recommended.