Mortality prediction models for severe burn patients: Which one is the best?

BACKGROUND: For prediction of mortality and clinical course, various scoring systems had been developed. We choose four well known burn specific scoring systems and a general scoring system that using in Intensive Care Units. The primary outcome of this study was evaluate the predictive performances of this models and define the optimal one for our patient population. METHODS: Variables analyzed were age, gender, burn type, total burned surface area (TBSA), total partial thickness burn area, total full thickness burn area, inhalation injuries, mechanical ventilation supports, blood products usage, total scores of Abbreviated Burn Severity Index (ABSI), revised Baux, Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury, Fatality by Longevity, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, Measured Extent of burn and Sex (FLAMES) and APACHE II, and their relations with mortality. RESULTS: In our study, a statistically significant relationship was found with mortality between age, TBSA, full thickness burn percentage, inhalation injury, burn type, and it was similar to literature. Female gender was found to be a significant risk factor for mortality. CONCLUSION: We compared several burn mortality scoring systems and their predictional mortality rates. ABSI scores of patients for estimated mortality rates were similar to our mortality rate. Consequently, it was thought that ABSI was included all mortality-related parameters.