Outcome and risk prediction of early progression in patients with extranodal natural killer/T cell lymphoma from the CLCG study

Recently, progression-free survival at 24 months (PFS24) was defined as clinically relevant for patients with extranodal NK/T cell lymphoma. Herein, the clinical data from two independent random cohorts (696 patients each in the primary and validation datasets) were used to develop and validate a risk index for PFS24 (PFS24-RI), and evaluate its ability to predict early progression. Patients achieving PFS24 had a 5-year overall survival (OS) of 95.8%, whereas OS was only 21.2% in those failing PFS24 (P<0.001). PFS24 was an important predictor of subsequent OS, independent of risk stratification. The proportion of patients achieving PFS24 and 5-year OS rates correlated linearly among risk-stratified groups. Based on multivariate analysis of the primary dataset, the PFS24-RI included five risk factors: stage II or III/IV, elevated lactate dehydrogenase, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score ≥2, primary tumor invasion, and extra-upper aerodigestive tract. PFS24-RI stratified the patients into low-risk (0), intermediate-risk (1–2), high-risk (≥3) groups with different prognoses. Harrell’s C-index of PFS24-RI for PFS24 prediction was 0.667 in the validation dataset, indicating a good discriminative ability. PFS24-RI calibration indicated that the actual observed and predicted probability of failing PFS24 agreed well. PFS24-RI provided the probability of achieving PFS24 at an individual patient level. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00277-023-05311-5.