Incidence trend analysis of tuberculosis in Khuzestan Province, southwest of Iran: 2010–2019

OBJECTIVES: Identifying the trend of diseases and its changes over time can be highly important in evaluating the extent and method of achieving strategies for controlling them, developing health indicators, and health planning. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of tuberculosis. METHODS: As a repeated cross-sectional study in which the population under study was a census, this study involved all tuberculosis cases registered in 21 cities of Southwest of Iran, from 2010 to 2019. Data were obtained from the National System of Notification of Tuberculosis and included variables related to age, sex and Disease consequence. Segmented regression models were used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis changes. Also, data analysis software- Join Point Regression version 5.0.2 was used for data analysis. RESULTS: The results of evaluating the trend of tuberculosis from 2010 to 2019 showed no change in the general trend of tuberculosis and an annual 0.84% (95% CI: ‐5.17 to 6.82) increase in incidence rate is observed in the trend. Also, the findings of join point regression analysis show that between 2010 and 2013, an annual 18.10% (95% CI: 8.78 to 34.89) increase in the incidence of tuberculosis, and between 2013 and 2019, annual −5.42% (95% CI: −10.04 to −2.22) decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis was observed. From 2010 to 2012, a 33.10% (95% CI: 15.77 to 48.06) annual increase in the incidence of tuberculosis in males and − 9.47% (95%CI: −14.02 to −6.33) annual decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis in females was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that the incidence of tuberculosis had an upward trend from 2010 to 2013 and a downward trend from 2013 onwards.