A Clinic-Radiomics Model for Predicting the Incidence of Persistent Organ Failure in Patients with Acute Necrotizing Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: Persistent organ failure (POF) is the leading cause of death in patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Although several risk factors have been identified, there remains a lack of efficient instruments to accurately predict the incidence of POF in ANP. METHODS: Retrospectively, the clinical and imaging data of 178 patients with ANP were collected from our database, and the patients were divided into training (n = 125) and validation (n = 53) cohorts. Through computed tomography image acquisition, the volume of interest segmentation, and feature extraction and selection, a pure radiomics model in terms of POF prediction was established. Then, a clinic-radiomics model integrating the pure radiomics model and clinical risk factors was constructed. Both primary and secondary endpoints were compared between the high- and low-risk groups stratified by the clinic-radiomics model. RESULTS: According to the 547 selected radiomics features, four models were derived from features. A clinic-radiomics model in the training and validation sets showed better predictive performance than pure radiomics and clinical models. The clinic-radiomics model was evaluated by the ratios of intervention and mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) stays, and hospital stays. The results showed that the high-risk group had significantly higher intervention rates, ICU stays, and hospital stays than the low-risk group, with the confidence interval of 90% (p < 0.1 for all). CONCLUSIONS: This clinic-radiomics model is a useful instrument for clinicians to evaluate the incidence of POF, facilitating patients' and their families' understanding of the ANP prognosis.