Diurnal rhythms of wrist temperature are associated with future disease risk in the UK Biobank

Many chronic disease symptomatologies involve desynchronized sleep-wake cycles, indicative of disrupted biorhythms. This can be interrogated using body temperature rhythms, which have circadian as well as sleep-wake behavior/environmental evoked components. Here, we investigated the association of wrist temperature amplitudes with a future onset of disease in the UK Biobank one year after actigraphy. Among 425 disease conditions (range n = 200-6728) compared to controls (range n = 62,107-91,134), a total of 73 (17%) disease phenotypes were significantly associated with decreased amplitudes of wrist temperature (Benjamini-Hochberg FDR q < 0.05) and 26 (6.1%) PheCODEs passed a more stringent significance level (Bonferroni-correction α < 0.05). A two-standard deviation (1.8° Celsius) lower wrist temperature amplitude corresponded to hazard ratios of 1.91 (1.58-2.31 95% CI) for NAFLD, 1.69 (1.53-1.88) for type 2 diabetes, 1.25 (1.14-1.37) for renal failure, 1.23 (1.17-1.3) for hypertension, and 1.22 (1.11-1.33) for pneumonia (phenome-wide atlas available at http://bioinf.itmat.upenn.edu/biorhythm_atlas/). This work suggests peripheral thermoregulation as a digital biomarker.