Landscape Dynamics and Ecological Risk Assessment of Cold Temperate Forest Moose Habitat in the Great Khingan Mountains, China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Through calculating landscape indexes and constructing an ecological risk assessment model, we assessed the landscape pattern and ecological risk of moose (Alces alces) habitat in the Nanwenghe National Nature Reserve of the Great Khingan Mountains in China. The results show that the areas with high habitat suitability for moose were mainly concentrated in forests and rivers. However, under the premise of global warming, the risk of landscape pattern fragmentation tends to increase from 2015 to 2020. Moose preference patch type is dispersed, the degree of polymerization is low, and the risk of patch type transformation is increased. In terms of ecological risk: the medium- and high-risk areas in the moose habitat are mainly concentrated in the river area and its nearby forests, showing a fine and scattered distribution. The low ecological risk area is mainly distributed on both sides of the road and the mountainous area, and the patch type is single. It shows that the moose habitat will have a weak ability to resist risk in the future. The study suggests that we should avoid further human intervention in forests and rivers, formulate reasonable forest protection and sustainable development plans in cold temperate zones, and effectively monitor and protect the dynamics of cold temperate forests and moose populations. ABSTRACT: The change in habitat pattern is one of the key factors affecting the survival of the moose population. The study of the habitat landscape pattern is the key to protecting the Chinese cold-temperate forest moose population and monitoring the global distribution of moose. Through the ecological risk assessment of the moose habitat landscape pattern in a cold-temperate forest, we hope to assess the strength of habitat resistance under stress factors. This study provides a theoretical basis for the protection of the moose population in the cold-temperate forest in China and the establishment of the cold-temperate forest national park. In the study, the MaxEnt model, landscape index calculation and ecological risk assessment model construction were used to analyze the field survey and infrared camera monitoring data from April 2014 to January 2023. The habitat suitability layer of the moose population in the Nanwenghe National Nature Reserve of the Great Khingan Mountains was calculated, and the range of the moose habitat was divided based on the logical threshold of the model. The landscape pattern index of the moose habitat was calculated by Fragstats software and a landscape ecological risk assessment model was established to analyze the landscape pattern and ecological risk dynamic changes of the moose habitat in 2015 and 2020. The results showed that under the premise of global warming, the habitat landscape contagion index decreased by 4.53 and the split index increased by 4.86 from 2015 to 2020. In terms of ecological risk: the area of low ecological risk areas increased by 0.88%; the area of medium ecological risk areas decreased by 1.11%; and the area of high ecological risk areas increased by 0.23%. The fragmentation risk of the landscape pattern of the moose habitat tends to increase, the preferred patch type is dispersed, the degree of aggregation is low, and the risk of patch type transformation increases. The middle and high ecological risk areas are mainly concentrated in the river area and its nearby forests, showing a fine and scattered distribution. Under the interference of global warming and human activities, the fragmentation trend of the moose habitat in the study area is increasing, and the habitat quality is declining, which is likely to cause moose population migration. For this reason, the author believes that the whole cold temperate forest is likely to face the risk of increasing the transformation trend of dominant patch types in the cold-temperate coniferous forest region mainly caused by global warming, resulting in an increase in the risk of habitat fragmentation. While the distribution range of moose is reduced, it has a significant impact on the diversity and ecological integrity of the whole cold-temperate forest ecosystem. This study provides theoretical references for further research on the impact of climate warming on global species distribution and related studies. It is also helpful for humans to strengthen their protection awareness of forest and river areas and formulate reasonable protection and sustainable development planning of cold-temperate forests. Finally, it provides theoretical references for effective monitoring and protection of cold-temperate forests and moose population dynamics.