Chaotic prediction of vibration performance degradation trend of rolling element bearing based on Weibull distribution

Rolling element bearings are used in all rotating machinery, and the degradation performance of rolling element bearings directly affects the performance of the machine. Therefore, high reliability prediction of the performance degradation trend of rolling element bearings has become an urgent research problem. However, the degradation characteristics of the rolling element bearings vibration time series are difficult to extract, and the mechanism of performance degradation is very complicated. The accurate physical model is difficult to establish. In view of the above reasons, based on the vibration performance data of rolling element bearings, a model of bearing performance degradation trend parameter based on wavelet denoising and Weibull distribution is established. Then, the phase space reconstruction of the series of bearing performance degradation trend parameter is carried out, and the prognosis is obtained by the improved adding weighted first-order local prediction method. The experimental results show that the bearing vibration performance degradation parameter can accurately depict the degradation trend of the bearing, and the reliability level is 91.55%; and the prediction of bearing performance degradation trend parameter is satisfactory: the mean relative error is only 0.0053% and the maximum relative error is less than 0.03%.