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Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic

The last three years have been the most challenging for humanity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel viral infection has eventually been able to infect most of the human population. It is now considered to be in the endemic stage, meaning it will remain in our world throughout our lifetime. Ther...

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Autores principales: Sahani, Saroj Kumar, Jakhad, Anjali
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10457448/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37637293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2023.102317
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author Sahani, Saroj Kumar
Jakhad, Anjali
author_facet Sahani, Saroj Kumar
Jakhad, Anjali
author_sort Sahani, Saroj Kumar
collection PubMed
description The last three years have been the most challenging for humanity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel viral infection has eventually been able to infect most of the human population. It is now considered to be in the endemic stage, meaning it will remain in our world throughout our lifetime. There will be an intermittent outbreak of the COVID infection from time to time. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a robust Mathematical model to study the dynamics of disease to have a control mechanism in place. In this article, we suggest a modified MSEIR model to explain the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We assume that a susceptible person contracting the coronavirus develops a transient immunity to the illness. Further, infectives comprise asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized and quarantined individuals. We assume that the incidence rate is of standard type, and susceptible can only become infective if they come in contact with either asymptomatic or symptomatic individuals. This basic and simple model effectively models the various waves every country has seen during the Pandemic. The simple analysis shows that the model could suggest various waves in future if we carefully select the incidence rate for the infection. In summary, we have discussed the following major points in this article. • We have analysed for local behavior infection-free equilibrium solution. Further, a thorough numerical exploration with various parameter settings has been performed to obtain the different cases of infection dynamics of the coronavirus epidemic. • We have found some interesting scenarios which explain the emergence of multiple waves observed in many countries.
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spelling pubmed-104574482023-08-27 Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic Sahani, Saroj Kumar Jakhad, Anjali MethodsX Mathematics The last three years have been the most challenging for humanity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The novel viral infection has eventually been able to infect most of the human population. It is now considered to be in the endemic stage, meaning it will remain in our world throughout our lifetime. There will be an intermittent outbreak of the COVID infection from time to time. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a robust Mathematical model to study the dynamics of disease to have a control mechanism in place. In this article, we suggest a modified MSEIR model to explain the dynamics of COVID-19 infection. We assume that a susceptible person contracting the coronavirus develops a transient immunity to the illness. Further, infectives comprise asymptomatic, symptomatic, hospitalized and quarantined individuals. We assume that the incidence rate is of standard type, and susceptible can only become infective if they come in contact with either asymptomatic or symptomatic individuals. This basic and simple model effectively models the various waves every country has seen during the Pandemic. The simple analysis shows that the model could suggest various waves in future if we carefully select the incidence rate for the infection. In summary, we have discussed the following major points in this article. • We have analysed for local behavior infection-free equilibrium solution. Further, a thorough numerical exploration with various parameter settings has been performed to obtain the different cases of infection dynamics of the coronavirus epidemic. • We have found some interesting scenarios which explain the emergence of multiple waves observed in many countries. Elsevier 2023-08-06 /pmc/articles/PMC10457448/ /pubmed/37637293 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2023.102317 Text en © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Mathematics
Sahani, Saroj Kumar
Jakhad, Anjali
Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title_short Incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort incidence rate drive the multiple wave in the covid-19 pandemic
topic Mathematics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10457448/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37637293
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mex.2023.102317
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AT jakhadanjali incidenceratedrivethemultiplewaveinthecovid19pandemic