Determinants of outpatient substance use disorder treatment length-of-stay and completion: the case of a treatment program in the southeast U.S

Successful outcomes of outpatient substance use disorder treatment result from many factors for clients—including intersections between individual characteristics, choices made, and social determinants. However, prioritizing which of these and in what combination, to address and provide support for remains an open and complex question. Therefore, we ask: What factors are associated with outpatient substance use disorder clients remaining in treatment for > 90 days and successfully completing treatment? To answer this question, we apply a virtual twins machine learning (ML) model to de-identified data for a census of clients who received outpatient substance use disorder treatment services from 2018 to 2021 from one treatment program in the Southeast U.S. We find that primary predictors of outcome success are: (1) attending self-help groups while in treatment, and (2) setting goals for treatment. Secondary predictors are: (1) being linked to a primary care provider (PCP) during treatment, (2) being linked to supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP), and (3) attending 6 or more self-help group sessions during treatment. These findings can help treatment programs guide client choice making and help set priorities for social determinant support. Further, the ML method applied can explain intersections between individual and social predictors, as well as outcome heterogeneity associated with subgroup differences.