Assessing the Performance of Prognostic Scores in Patients with Spinal Metastases from Lung Cancer Undergoing Non-surgical Treatment

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to see how well the Tomita score, revised Tokuhashi score, modified Bauer score, Van der Linden score, classic Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG) algorithm, SORG nomogram, and New England Spinal Metastasis Score (NESMS) predicted 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year survival of non-surgical lung cancer spinal metastases. OVERVIEW OF LITERATURE: There has been no study assessing the performance of prognostic scores for non-surgical lung cancer spinal metastases. METHODS: Data analysis was carried out to identify the variables that had a significant impact on survival. For all patients with spinal metastasis from lung cancer who received non-surgical treatment, the Tomita score, revised Tokuhashi score, modified Bauer score, Van der Linden score, classic SORG algorithm, SORG nomogram, and NESMS were calculated. The performance of the scoring systems was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. The predictive accuracy of the scoring systems was quantified using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 127 patients are included in the present study. The median survival of the population study was 5.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.7–9.6 months). Low hemoglobin was associated with shorter survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; 95% CI, 1.00–2.23; p=0.049), while targeted therapy after spinal metastasis was associated with longer survival (HR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.21–0.51; p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, targeted therapy was independently associated with longer survival (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.17–0.5; p<0.001). The AUC of the time-dependent ROC curves for the above prognostic scores revealed all of them performed poorly (AUC <0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The seven scoring systems investigated are ineffective at predicting survival in patients with spinal metastasis from lung cancer who are treated non-surgically.